The Macro Report | November 2018
The Fed’s interest-rate gamble
In China, an escalating trade war with the United States, slowing growth and rising debt are weighing on the economy. The currency has weakened and is hovering near a 10-year low against the dollar. There is risk the U.S. administration may overtighten the screws on Beijing, raising the specter of a sharper Chinese downturn. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency in a runoff vote in October, signaling a shift to the far right. He inherits an economy hobbled by low growth and high debt.
Risk of Fed policy mistake grows
U.S. Federal Reserve officials are worrying about inflation and have signaled more rate hikes at the risk of reversing the nine-year economic expansion.
Populism wins in Brazil
Jair Bolsonaro won the presidency in a runoff vote in October, signaling a shift to the far right. He inherits an economy hobbled by low growth and high debt.
About the macro report
The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.
Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis
Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis
Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics
Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics
Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting
Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics