Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes


July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?

July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?

The Fed cut interest rates to protect growth from downside risks and described the move as a mid-cycle adjustment to policy, or a so-called “insurance” cut.

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Bonds rally as the Fed signals possible rate cut

Bonds rally as the Fed signals possible rate cut

The global economy has cooled in 2019 as the fallout from the ongoing trade rifts, waning business confidence, and financial market volatility have kept the lid on expansion.

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Caution with a chance of bearishness

Caution with a chance of bearishness

We are shifting our tactical allocations as weaker data give us doubts about current earnings expectations.

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What happened to value stocks?

What happened to value stocks?

What happened to value stocks?

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The Fed's growth conundrum

The Fed's growth conundrum

The global economy has weakened a little and asset markets have tumbled because of the United States' trade disputes with China and other nations.

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Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets

Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets

The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.

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Central banks walk growth tightrope

Central banks walk growth tightrope

The Fed's pivot on rate hikes has rippled around the world, and many other central banks are adopting a more dovish stance to support growth.

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Implications of the Huawei export ban

Implications of the Huawei export ban

With Huawei blocked by the U.S. Commerce Department from buying U.S. technology, we discuss ramifications on the technology sector and how the ban may end.

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Trade tensions could reduce global GDP

Trade tensions could reduce global GDP

There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.

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The yield curve's blurred lines

The yield curve's blurred lines

The global economy is showing a few tentative signs of improvement, but risks remain.

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Balancing growth and interest rates

Balancing growth and interest rates

The global economy continues to slow. Higher interest rates, weaker demand from China, political troubles in the eurozone, and protectionist tariffs have kept the lid on economic growth.

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Tipping points and the economy

Tipping points and the economy

The global economy continues to slow. But there are signs that more supportive policies, including a dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, will keep growth within a certain range.

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A delicate balance

A delicate balance

Forecasting 2019 means interpreting the interactions between economic growth, interest rates, and risky assets.

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Securitized debt: Building blocks of a diversified portfolio

Securitized debt: Building blocks of a diversified portfolio

Securitized debt may be used to create a diversified portfolio through various risk exposures

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ESG outlook for 2019

ESG outlook for 2019

We see increasing evidence that systems thinking is becoming more prevalent and influential throughout corporations and the investment community.

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What November means for 2019

What November means for 2019

The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.

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How company diversity can help performance

How company diversity can help performance

The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.

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October stock market volatility may signal a shift

October stock market volatility may signal a shift

Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.

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Italy may be conduit for EM contagion

Italy may be conduit for EM contagion

If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.

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Buybacks and M&A may fuel equities, but trade conflict is a key risk

Buybacks and M&A may fuel equities, but trade conflict is a key risk

Several trends could boost equity returns, but trade negotiations create market risk.

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The unrecognized diversification profile of securitized debt

The unrecognized diversification profile of securitized debt

Securitized debt may be less familiar to many institutions, but it offers the diversification and potential performance profile that many of them seek.

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Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices

Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices

Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.

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Potential benefits of prepayment risk

Potential benefits of prepayment risk

Investors seeking strategies to diversify away from corporate credit and interest-rate sensitive sectors may consider prepayment risk.

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Are non-U.S. stocks truly cheap?

Are non-U.S. stocks truly cheap?

On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than non-U.S. stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.

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Looking for impact in CEO compensation

Looking for impact in CEO compensation

It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.

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Using and enhancing ESG investment data

Using and enhancing ESG investment data

ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.

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The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.