Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
ESG outlook for 2019
We see increasing evidence that systems thinking is becoming more prevalent and influential throughout corporations and the investment community.
We see a mid-cycle slowdown, but upside on the horizon
As the S&P 500 Index teetered on the verge of a bear market at year-end, we fielded numerous questions about the prospects for an impending recession.
What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
China, U.S. trade tensions will reverberate across emerging markets
Emerging market equities will remain under pressure amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.
The Fed’s interest-rate gamble
Global economic growth remains vulnerable in the face of escalating trade tensions, higher interest rates, and volatility among emerging markets.
How company diversity can help performance
The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.
Trade war and rising rates create headwinds for global economy
The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of protectionist tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices.
October stock market volatility may signal a shift
Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.
Tweets and trade tensions
The outlook for global economic growth is easing because of trade tariffs, weakness in emerging markets, and rising oil prices.
Seeking opportunity in uncertainty
Despite risks of inflation and trade conflicts, opportunities exist for equity investors worldwide.
Market wild cards
The global economy is expected to enjoy relatively solid growth even as emerging markets tumble and the trade wars escalate.
Italy may be conduit for EM contagion
If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.
Buybacks and M&A may fuel equities, but trade conflict is a key risk
Several trends could boost equity returns, but trade negotiations create market risk.
Downside risks loom even larger
While the outlook for global growth is favorable — albeit less synchronized — the view could change if the Federal Reserve overtightens and trade spats escalate.
The unrecognized diversification profile of securitized debt
Securitized debt may be less familiar to many institutions, but it offers the diversification and potential performance profile that many of them seek.
China’s quest for artificial intelligence
China's hardware tech companies are embracing artificial intelligence, including self-driving cars and surveillance, as the government promotes AI hubs.
Italy’s Political Opera
Italy’s Giuseppe Conte was sworn in to power in early June to head a new populist government — made up of an unlikely marriage between the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party.
Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices
Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.
The inflation conundrum
Our outlook contains some small but noteworthy shifts. Rising oil prices are expected to lift slightly the trajectory of inflation in the United States because of the pass-through to consumer prices.
Potential benefits of prepayment risk
Investors seeking strategies to diversify away from corporate credit and interest-rate sensitive sectors may consider prepayment risk.
Are non-U.S. stocks truly cheap?
On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than non-U.S. stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.
China: A view through the looking glass
With President Xi Jinping's second-term underway, growth in China is expected to slow in 2018 as government reins in spending.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
Using and enhancing ESG investment data
ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
Diversifying stable value with traditional GICs
Stable value portfolios that avoid traditional GICs may be missing a diversification opportunity that also offers liquidity.
Recognize the value of flexibility as central banks experiment
Unconstrained diversification may be valuable for fixed-income investors as markets monitor possible changes in central bank policies around the globe.
Proceeding toward Brexit: The risks for investors
With the United Kingdom beginning to move forward with Brexit, we see risks to the economy, the pound, and the markets.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.