Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | June 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

Global economy continues to contract

The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a deeper economic slowdown.

Global growth forecast slumped across almost all regions; Asia was the exception. Among G-10 economies, the United Kingdom and Canada had the biggest slowdown. In Britain, the services sector and composite PMI signaled a severe downturn. The eurozone and Australia are on the slowdown path as well. In Latin America, Brazil's economic indicators have been hit hard. In Asia, China's growth forecast has improved as job openings, real estate environment, economic survey data, industrial output, and energy production contributed positively.

This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of May 31, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.