Weekly economic update for January 23, 2023


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5% in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics found.
  • Industrial production decreased 0.7% in December, the Federal Reserve noted.
  • Retail sales fell 1.1% in December compared with November, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 190,000 in the week ended January 14, 2023, according to the Department of Labor.


Profits
  • As of January 12, 2023, of the 27 S&P 500 Index companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings, 23 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany rose in January, reaching a positive level for the first time since February 2022.


Europe
  • Eurostat reported the euro area annual inflation rate fell to 9.2% in December from 10.1% in November.
  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office noted the Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% year over year in December.
  • Eurostat found euro area construction production fell 0.8% in November compared with October.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.


Risks
  • High energy prices, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine War, increase the risk of stagflation and recession, even as central banks seek monetary policy normalization.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.