Explore our thinking about today's financial markets


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New York confident about recovery

February 24, 2021  |  Fixed income

New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.

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New York confident about recovery

Capital Markets Outlook

The market’s potential sugar high

The market’s potential sugar high

January 14, 2021  |  Capital Markets Outlook

Amid a likely tug-of-war between positive and negative economic news, we favor investing with a flexible approach.

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Fixed Income Outlook

Bond investors chase yields amid vaccine rollout

Bond investors chase yields amid vaccine rollout

January 27, 2021  |  Fixed Income Outlook

Global financial markets trended higher during the fourth quarter, powered by the emergence of COVID-19 vaccines and continuing stimulus policies.

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Equity Outlook

A shot in the arm: The economy and stocks get a boost from vaccines

A shot in the arm: The economy and stocks get a boost from vaccines

January 15, 2021  |  Equity Outlook

The potential for a post-pandemic recovery bodes well for equities.

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New York confident about recovery

New York confident about recovery

New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.

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Thinking about growth investment? Consider your exposures.

Thinking about growth investment? Consider your exposures.

The technology and healthcare sectors stand apart for bringing new products, ideas, and services to market.

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New medicines and digital tools target mental health

New medicines and digital tools target mental health

In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.

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Is inflation poised to return?

Is inflation poised to return?

We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.

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California budget outlook brightens

California budget outlook brightens

With revenues coming in higher than projected, the outlook for the California budget is positive in the near term.

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Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees

Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees

Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.

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U.K. starts new chapter after EU split

U.K. starts new chapter after EU split

It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.

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Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery

Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery

The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.

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Record-setting muni issuance pauses post-election

Record-setting muni issuance pauses post-election

Muni issuance pauses post-election, but reinvestment demand typically increases near year-end.

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Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+

Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+

Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.

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Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles

Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles

Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.

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Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons

Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons

Two weeks after Election Day, we believe the markets have a lot more clarity, but options markets reveal uncertainty.

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U.S. politics amid virus surge

U.S. politics amid virus surge

U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.

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Munis outpace Treasuries, taxable bonds

Munis outpace Treasuries, taxable bonds

The recovery in the municipal bond market continued in the third quarter as munis outpaced U.S. Treasuries and the broader taxable bond market.

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China leads, other emerging markets lag

China leads, other emerging markets lag

China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.

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Pandemic persists in policy patchwork

Pandemic persists in policy patchwork

Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.

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U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote

U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote

Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.

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The global economy and the race for a vaccine

The global economy and the race for a vaccine

The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.

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If taxes move higher, demand for munis may surge

If taxes move higher, demand for munis may surge

The likelihood of higher taxes in the future could boost demand for tax-advantaged investments including munis.

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Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe

Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.

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Investors returning to municipal bond funds

Investors returning to municipal bond funds

Municipal bond funds rebounded in the second quarter as investors returned to asset classes they abandoned early in the pandemic.

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Muni-bond market slowly reviving from COVID-19 setback

Muni-bond market slowly reviving from COVID-19 setback

The Fed helped the muni-bond market revive the muni-debt market as states and local governments grappled with revenue disruptions.

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The Fed’s flexible new policy

The Fed’s flexible new policy

The Fed announced a shift in its approach to monetary policy and the new strategy can be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.

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The future is happening faster now

The future is happening faster now

We rarely see as much disruption as we have seen in 2020, and we believe this offers investment opportunities.

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Perspective on keeping perspective

Perspective on keeping perspective

Five months into our pandemic environment, financial professionals are looking for ways to keep their work in perspective.

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Deglobalization creates new winners in China

Deglobalization creates new winners in China

The trade war, pandemic, and the Made in China 2025 initiative are resulting in a deglobalization trend and opportunities in China.

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Staying at home increases spending on homes

Staying at home increases spending on homes

As the economy continues to be challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing two notable trends in the U.S. housing industry.

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V-shaped recovery proving elusive

V-shaped recovery proving elusive

The U.S. and global economic recoveries are unlikely to be “V-shaped” as businesses and consumers remain wary of returning to pre-pandemic behavior.

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Vaccine is a wild card for the economy

Vaccine is a wild card for the economy

A vaccine for the coronavirus will be supportive of risky assets even if the economic benefits take longer to materialize.

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Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering

Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering

Without a proactive Fed, the rally in risk assets would be in trouble.

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Europe displays rare unity over relief fund

Europe displays rare unity over relief fund

In a step toward closer ties, European Union leaders plan to discuss a recovery fund for countries hardest hit by the pandemic.

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