Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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New York confident about recovery
February 24, 2021 | Fixed income
New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.
Capital Markets Outlook
The market’s potential sugar high
January 14, 2021 | Capital Markets Outlook
Amid a likely tug-of-war between positive and negative economic news, we favor investing with a flexible approach.
Fixed Income Outlook
Bond investors chase yields amid vaccine rollout
January 27, 2021 | Fixed Income Outlook
Global financial markets trended higher during the fourth quarter, powered by the emergence of COVID-19 vaccines and continuing stimulus policies.
Equity Outlook
A shot in the arm: The economy and stocks get a boost from vaccines
January 15, 2021 | Equity Outlook
The potential for a post-pandemic recovery bodes well for equities.
New York confident about recovery
New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.
Thinking about growth investment? Consider your exposures.
The technology and healthcare sectors stand apart for bringing new products, ideas, and services to market.
New medicines and digital tools target mental health
In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
California budget outlook brightens
With revenues coming in higher than projected, the outlook for the California budget is positive in the near term.
Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees
Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery
The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.
Record-setting muni issuance pauses post-election
Muni issuance pauses post-election, but reinvestment demand typically increases near year-end.
Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+
Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.
Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles
Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.
Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons
Two weeks after Election Day, we believe the markets have a lot more clarity, but options markets reveal uncertainty.
U.S. politics amid virus surge
U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.
Munis outpace Treasuries, taxable bonds
The recovery in the municipal bond market continued in the third quarter as munis outpaced U.S. Treasuries and the broader taxable bond market.
China leads, other emerging markets lag
China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.
Pandemic persists in policy patchwork
Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote
Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.
The global economy and the race for a vaccine
The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.
If taxes move higher, demand for munis may surge
The likelihood of higher taxes in the future could boost demand for tax-advantaged investments including munis.
Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.
Investors returning to municipal bond funds
Municipal bond funds rebounded in the second quarter as investors returned to asset classes they abandoned early in the pandemic.
Muni-bond market slowly reviving from COVID-19 setback
The Fed helped the muni-bond market revive the muni-debt market as states and local governments grappled with revenue disruptions.
The Fed’s flexible new policy
The Fed announced a shift in its approach to monetary policy and the new strategy can be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.
The future is happening faster now
We rarely see as much disruption as we have seen in 2020, and we believe this offers investment opportunities.
Perspective on keeping perspective
Five months into our pandemic environment, financial professionals are looking for ways to keep their work in perspective.
Deglobalization creates new winners in China
The trade war, pandemic, and the Made in China 2025 initiative are resulting in a deglobalization trend and opportunities in China.
Staying at home increases spending on homes
As the economy continues to be challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing two notable trends in the U.S. housing industry.
V-shaped recovery proving elusive
The U.S. and global economic recoveries are unlikely to be “V-shaped” as businesses and consumers remain wary of returning to pre-pandemic behavior.
Vaccine is a wild card for the economy
A vaccine for the coronavirus will be supportive of risky assets even if the economic benefits take longer to materialize.
Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering
Without a proactive Fed, the rally in risk assets would be in trouble.
Europe displays rare unity over relief fund
In a step toward closer ties, European Union leaders plan to discuss a recovery fund for countries hardest hit by the pandemic.