Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
May 19, 2023 | Fixed income
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Capital Markets Outlook
Be careful what you wish for
April 12, 2023 | Capital Markets Outlook
Fears of a U.S. recession are growing as credit delinquency begins to rise toward pre-pandemic levels. Explore the risk and realities of how a credit crunch could unfold.
Fixed Income Outlook
Financial stability risk and recession odds rise
May 9, 2023 | Fixed Income Outlook
A final rate hike and a possible credit squeeze loom over the economy.
Equity Insights
You must be present to win: The outlook for large-cap growth stocks
May 1, 2023 | Equity Insights
Large-cap growth stocks delivered solid returns in the early months of 2023, and we remain optimistic about their prospects.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Economic moats | Active investors seek wider moats
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
The Banking System, The Fed, and What Might Lie Ahead with Jackie Cavanaugh
In this episode, Chris speaks with Jackie Cavanaugh, Portfolio Manager and Analyst in Putnam's Equity Research group.
Rethinking fixed income allocations around the end of a Fed hiking cycle
With the market currently anticipating the completion of the Fed's interest-rate hikes at its May meeting, we analyze historical rate cycles to offer guidance on fixed income allocations.
Inflation demands Fed's focus as bank lending tightens
Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.
The Benefits of Active Management in International Equities with Vivek Gandhi, CFA
In this episode, Chris speaks with Vivek Gandhi, the Portfolio Manager of Putnam International Equity Fund.
The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
What the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Means for Powell and Fed Policy
Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the public's shaken faith in the banking system may affect what the Fed is willing to try to curb inflation. Learn more today.
Will interest rates go down?
Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.
2023 Market Outlook and Opportunities
In this episode, Senior Market Strategist Rick Polsinello, Jr., CIMA® hosts a discussion with Senior Market Strategist Chris Galipeau, and Global Macro Strategist Jason Vaillancourt, CFA.
S&P 500 Index, earnings, and P/E multiple performance during U.S. recessions
Many investors believe that the U.S. is on the cusp of entering an economic recession. Our analysis looks at how the S&P 500 Index has performed during each U.S. recession since the mid-1950’s.
How an active core strategy can benefit equity investors
An active core strategy backed by fundamental, sector-based research has demonstrated impressive long-term performance versus passive strategies.
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
The ABCs of BDCs with Michael Petro, CFA
Chris speaks with Mike Petro, portfolio manager of the Putnam BDC Income ETF. Mike is responsible for Putnam's small-cap value and BDC (business development company) capabilities.
How structured credit could be resilient against recession
The macro landscape calls for taking a lower level of risk and being alert to attractive opportunities.
What's next for the traditional 60/40 portfolio
Volatility in both stock and bond markets persisted in Q3 2022, with equity markets making new year-to-date lows and interest rates reaching the highest levels since 2008. 2022 has also presented challenges for the traditional 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.
Today's convertible landscape with Rob Salvin
Guest host Rick Polsinello talks with Portfolio Manager Rob Salvin about opportunities in the convertible bond market.
ESG: Hearing the signal above the noise
In our view, the best opportunities lie not at the extremes of ESG rhetoric, but at the heart of sustainability substance.
What is the biorevolution?
The revolution in biology and life sciences is unleashing new potential for innovation across many sectors, creating opportunities for investors.
What is a BDC?
A BDC is a business development company. BDCs provide financing to small and midsize private companies. Investing in BDCs can offer attractive income to public investors through private market exposure.
Slowing economic growth and fixed income performance
As a follow up to the piece we published in July that focused on decelerating economic growth and equity returns, we thought it made sense to look at how some fixed income sectors fared during the same periods. We researched this concept to better understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, credit spreads, and total returns.
What is the circular economy, and why is it important?
Adapting business models to be less resource intensive creates opportunity for environmental and economic benefit.
Consumer sentiment and forward market performance
In light of decades-high inflation, the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, and concerns about an economic slowdown, U.S. consumer sentiment has plummeted.. This year, sentiment is historically low, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.
Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed's inflation fight
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
How an active target-date strategy can navigate interest-rate risk
Active managers are in a unique position to manage risks in target-date strategies.
Style and factor performance during economic deceleration
Investors are concerned about decelerating economic growth and what this could mean for future equity returns. We researched this question to understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, earnings degradation, and any subsequent style or factor performance.
Are bonds too risky right now?
With historical context in mind, we argue that the fear surrounding rising rates and their impact on bonds and retirement portfolios is likely overblown.
How markets could react to Fed and ECB meetings
A mixed batch of inflation readings moved market expectations, but it is more important to remember the Fed’s inflation dashboard.
Cracks emerge in Europe's resilience
Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.
The long-term investment case for stocks and bonds
A study of the long-term investment performance of stocks and bonds can offer insights for bond investors today.
A look at leveraged loans and CLOs
A recent Active Insights podcast features a discussion of leveraged loans, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).
U.S. recession ifs and whens
The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.
Munis after Q1 — and April — and 8 reasons why we are still constructive
While munis suffered a bad quarter to start 2022, brighter days may be ahead amid strong fundamentals.
Look beyond dividends for income from value investing
To build a value investment strategy, consider dividends in the context of overall income.
U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
Munis after a terrible Q1 and 8 factors that have us constructive
While munis suffered a bad quarter to start 2022, brighter days may be ahead amid strong fundamentals.
Yield curve inversion and market performance
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The central bank also indicated that this is likely the start of a tightening cycle, as policymakers attempt to dampen the elevated levels of inflation seen since the start of the pandemic.
China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.
Oil prices face downside risk
We expect oil prices to enter a correction stage and for Russia’s war in Ukraine to play less of a role in oil markets.
Market performance during Fed tightening cycles
In this analysis we assess asset class performance during prior cycles of Federal Reserve monetary tightening.
Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.
War and inflation put bull market in hibernation
Investors may be underestimating the immense range of potential outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine War.
Renewed optimism for securitized credit
We are optimistic about pockets of the U.S. structured credit market — prepayment strategies and commercial mortgage-backed securities — despite shifts in the investment landscape.
Oil prices may correct after sanctions-related spike
While the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have lifted oil prices higher, current prices may be temporary.
Teaming up on DX: A compelling investment opportunity
As businesses work at a faster pace to modernize their technology systems, compelling investment opportunities are emerging.
Emerging markets walk a fine line
Emerging market assets — especially currencies and bonds — have proved to be resilient amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising interest rates and Omicron.
Oil: From sizzle to fizzle
Crude oil prices have rocketed to seven-year highs. But we have a bearish view because current prices are unsustainable.
What to know about munis heading into Fed tightening
A look at recent monetary policy cycles to glean insights about munis heading into Fed tightening.
Precautionary stockpiling and its impact on growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which will influence economic growth in 2022.
Finding growth potential in unexpected places
For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.
Charting the road ahead for ultrashort bond funds
After an eventful decade for ultrashort bond funds, we remain steadfast in our belief that an ultrashort allocation is viable in all market environments.
Help plan sponsors with the labor crunch
Facing the challenges of a labor crunch, employers may want to consider how workplace savings can help boost recruiting efforts.
How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?
The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.
The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates
We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.
Risk managers: Essential partners for delivering performance
A successful risk team is one that can analyze multiple measures of risk and work with investment teams before trades are executed to capture alpha.
$100 oil may be a pipe dream
Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.
A look at the Federal Reserve’s 2014 taper
With the Federal Reserve nearing a decision to begin tapering its asset purchases, we thought it would be beneficial to look at what occurred the last time the Fed reduced its asset purchases.
Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates
The potential for rising interest rates may mean it's time to diversify a portfolio with convertibles.
Regulatory storm sweeps across China
President Xi Jinping's "common prosperity" campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.
Emerging markets leading the way in innovation
Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.
China property problem — Bigger than Mt. Evergrande
Recent default warnings from one of China's leading real estate development companies signaled a bigger property problem in the sector.
How an active core strategy can benefit equity investors
An active core strategy backed by fundamental, sector-based research has demonstrated impressive long-term performance versus passive strategies.
Post-recession market trends
How do different asset classes perform coming out of recession? Is there a drop off in performance in the second year of a recovery relative to the first year? In this analysis we look at asset class performance in the two calendar years after a recession ends.
Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
Consider stable value funds for DC plans
For retirement plan sponsors, choosing a capital preservation option can be challenging. We offer insights about stable value funds and their performance.
Taking a fiduciary view on target-date selection
It is important for a fiduciary to understand glide path features and how these features are combined in target date fund selection.
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
State financial health adds to muni appeal
State financial health has improved as tax receipts rebound and states receive sizable federal aid.
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Don't overlook international small caps
When focused on diversification one asset class that is often overlooked is non-U.S. small-caps.
Time-as-a-Service, anyone?
The evolution of time-as-a-service illustrates the changing nature of economic moats, competitive advantages that protect a company’s market share.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
If taxes go higher, will munis be hurt?
The Administration's recent plan would increase the highest marginal income tax rate but would not likely impact muni yields.
China technology stocks in a reboot, not a shutdown
China’s technology sector has cratered since February and we view the selloff as a buying opportunity in China tech.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Clean energy: Myths, reality, and opportunities
We believe many companies are poised to benefit significantly from the big shift toward renewable energy.
Pandemic recovery: Who may benefit once the dust settles?
Uncertainty still surrounds the future of Covid-19 and various vaccines, but we're already seeing clear differences in consumer and business behavior since the pandemic.
American Rescue Plan strengthens state and local finances
The American Rescue Plan Act provides billions in federal stimulus to states and local governments.
Why think twice about investing in an EM ETF
Active management can offer superior performance when investing in an emerging markets ETF.
Massachusetts budget taps rainy day fund, federal aid
The Governor of Massachusetts introduced a budget proposal that includes a withdrawal from the state’s rainy day fund and federal aid to balance the budget.
Munis in demand with new taxes possible
Demand for municipal bonds continues to be robust in 2021.
Company diversity and social justice
Company diversity is a step toward equity and equity is a step toward inclusion, which is important to company success.
New York confident about recovery
New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.
Thinking about growth investment? Consider your exposures.
The technology and healthcare sectors stand apart for bringing new products, ideas, and services to market.
New medicines and digital tools target mental health
In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
California budget outlook brightens
With revenues coming in higher than projected, the outlook for the California budget is positive in the near term.
Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees
Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery
The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.
Record-setting muni issuance pauses post-election
Muni issuance pauses post-election, but reinvestment demand typically increases near year-end.
Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+
Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.
Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles
Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.
Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons
Two weeks after Election Day, we believe the markets have a lot more clarity, but options markets reveal uncertainty.
U.S. politics amid virus surge
U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.
Munis outpace Treasuries, taxable bonds
The recovery in the municipal bond market continued in the third quarter as munis outpaced U.S. Treasuries and the broader taxable bond market.
China leads, other emerging markets lag
China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.
Pandemic persists in policy patchwork
Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote
Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.
The global economy and the race for a vaccine
The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.
If taxes move higher, demand for munis may surge
The likelihood of higher taxes in the future could boost demand for tax-advantaged investments including munis.
Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.
Investors returning to municipal bond funds
Municipal bond funds rebounded in the second quarter as investors returned to asset classes they abandoned early in the pandemic.
Muni-bond market slowly reviving from COVID-19 setback
The Fed helped the muni-bond market revive the muni-debt market as states and local governments grappled with revenue disruptions.