Weekly economic update for November 8, 2021


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The IHS Markit U.S. Composite PMI Output Index rose to 57.6 in October from 55.0 in September.
  • The trade deficit widened in September, the Census Bureau reported.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 269,000 in the week ended October 30, 2021, the Department of Labor found.
  • The United States added 531,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in September from 4.8% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.


Profits
  • As of October 29, 2021, of 276 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 223 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The IBC/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell in November for the fifth consecutive month.


Europe
  • The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index declined to 54.2 in October from 56.2 in September.
  • Euro area industrial producer prices rose 2.7% in September compared with August, according to Eurostat.
  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office reported retail sales fell 2.5% in September compared with August.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined.
  • The Bank of England held rates steady.
  • The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee decided to begin reducing the pace of its net asset purchases later in November.


Risks
  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • Upward pressure on inflation from multiple fronts (energy prices, housing costs, and the labor market) could pressure central banks to pull forward their timelines for monetary policy normalization.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.