The Macro Report | October 2019
A mixed economic outlook
Global growth will remain sluggish this year as protectionist tariffs continue to rattle manufacturers, businesses, and financial markets. The U.S. economy is decelerating modestly, and recent economic indicators are sending mixed signals about the outlook. While manufacturing activity tumbled to a more than 10-year low in September, the labor market held steady. We believe that the likelihood of a recession remains relatively low in the near term.
Elsewhere in the world, China's growth is stabilizing. Recent measures by Chinese authorities, including reducing the amount of money commercial banks must hold in reserves, may have supported economic expansion. The partial trade deal between the United States and China will help lower tensions, but it is unlikely to resolve all the key issues behind the conflict. In Europe, the outlook is cloudier as Germany teeters on the brink of recession and Brexit drags on. Britain's economy will be the hardest hit by a "no-deal" Brexit. Against this global backdrop, oil prices declined.
Green shoots or false signals?
Global growth is likely to remain sluggish as the trade rift takes a toll on exports, manufacturing, and investments.
U.S. manufacturing wavers
Manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in September as tariffs hurt exports, and recession worries have resurfaced.
About the macro report
The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.
Michael Atkin, Head of Macro & Sovereign Credit
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis
Albert Chan, CFA, Head of Portfolio Construction
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis
Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics
Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics
Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting
Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics