The Macro Report | November 2019

Reading signs of stabilization

The global economy is likely to stabilize at around the current growth rate. U.S. growth settled in at a slower pace in the third quarter, with consumer spending helping lift the economy while manufacturing and business investment faltered. The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark federal funds rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% in October, the third reduction since July, and hinted at a pause in its policy easing. The United States and China are in talks to finalize an initial — or phase one — trade deal, helping diffuse existing tensions. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a recession remains low.

Elsewhere in the world, the United Kingdom is getting ready for snap elections in mid-December. The vote comes amid continued divisions within Britain over its membership in the European Union (EU) and Prime Minister Boris Johnson's exit plan. We expect a "soft Brexit" vision to prevail. In Japan, policy makers continue to grapple with slowing growth. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) plans to keep its policy rates at the current levels or reduce them so long as uncertainties remain about reaching the central bank's 2% inflation target.

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Consumers prop up U.S. economy

Consumers prop up U.S. economy

The economy is on a gently slowing trend as spending by consumers continues to buoy growth and the Fed signals a pause in cutting rates.

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Brexit's odyssey

Brexit's odyssey

The EU agreed to delay Brexit until the end of January 2020, setting the stage for elections and a showdown between the major parties.

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Charting Japan's growth

Charting Japan's growth

The economy's prospects are still slipping as the central bank downgrades its growth forecasts and opts to hold interest rates steady.

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About the macro report

The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.

Michael Atkin, Portfolio Manager
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis

Albert Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis

Onsel Emre, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics

Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics

Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting

Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics