The Macro Report | December 2019
Mixed economic messages for 2020
2020 is likely to be another year of sluggish growth with continued risk of a sharper downturn. There will be a lot at stake in the 2020 U.S. presidential elections as Republicans and Democrats wrestle to take control of the White House, the Senate, and the House. The outcome will influence everything from Wall Street and the economy to businesses and trade policies. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve has signaled a pause on additional interest-rate cuts. And the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains low.
Elsewhere in the world, governments — including New Zealand and Japan — are turning on their fiscal stimulus taps to boost their economies. This shift comes as many central banks join the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) in pausing the global wave of monetary easing amid negative interest rates. And finally, understanding the interplay between economic growth, rates, and financial markets will become even more important for investors and central banks alike this year.
High-stakes 2020 elections
The economy will matter in next year’s general elections as both Democrats and Republicans vie to take control of a divided nation.
Fiscal policy U-turns
Many governments around the world are mulling, or have provided, extra fiscal stimulus to boost their economies as the limits of monetary policy become more evident.
About the macro report
The Macro Report is written by members of Putnam’s Fixed Income team. With backgrounds in applied economics, currency and interest-rate analysis, and sovereign and local bond market dynamics, this group conducts macroeconomic research in support of Putnam’s global fixed-income strategies.
Michael Atkin, Head of Macro & Sovereign Credit
Investing since 1988
Sovereign debt, global growth analysis
Albert Chan, CFA, Head of Portfolio Construction
Interest-rate derivatives, government debt, risk analysis
Onsel Gulbiten, PhD, Analyst
Inflation, risk analysis, global growth dynamics
Sterling Horne, Analyst
Politics and economics
Irina Solyanik, CFA, Analyst
Quantitive analysis, growth forecasting
Izzet Yildiz, PhD, Analyst
Labor market analysis, global growth dynamics