Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | September 2021

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global economic growth slows

SHORT-TERM TREND
Rising Covid-19 cases and worries about higher interest rates damped recovery expectations
3.95%

Among G-10 economies, the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Australia slowed the most. Canada and Japan improved, while the United States held steady. The euro area's industrial production declined, and Britain's composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and services PMI disappointed. In Canada, exports, auto sales, employment, and retail sales contributed to growth. In the Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa (CEEMEA) region, South Africa slowed the most, while Turkey improved. Among Asian economies, Malaysia's economic indicators improved as South Korea's slowed. China continued its modest downward trend due to disappointing real estate, housing, and manufacturing PMI indicators.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–present

Global growth estimates start to pick up and stabilize as countries ease mobility restrictions and vaccination rates rise.

Source: Putnam. Data as of August 31, 2021. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.