Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | May 2022

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth continues to trend lower

SHORT-TERM TREND
Inflation, higher interest rates, and the war take a toll on economic activity
2.62%

Among G10 countries, economic activity slowed the most in the United States. In the United States, the ISM index of manufacturing declined, and inflation accelerated. Headline inflation was driven by food and energy prices. In the eurozone, growth turned negative as the region's manufacturing sector stalled, while business and consumer confidence remain weak. However, growth bounced slightly for commodity-exporting countries such as Australia and Canada due to the surge in prices. In the CEEMEA region, economic activity in Russia turned negative. In Latin America, growth improved in Mexico, Brazil, and Chile. In Asia, growth slowed in almost all countries. China's manufacturing and services sectors fell, and demand remains weak amid supply-chain issues.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration shows stable GDP up until the collapse from the coronavirus pandemic.

Feb '20–April '20

The Covid-19 pandemic causes a global economic downturn.

May '20–Dec '21

Global growth starts to surge and stays at elevated levels as life continues to normalize.

Jan '22–present

Rising interest rates and inflation, and the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine War cuts global growth prospects.

Source: Putnam. Data as of April 30, 2022. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.