Explore research driven analysis of evolving market themes.
April 13, 2017
Today's pro-cyclical, rising rate environment has a playbook with historical precedent.
Why rates matter to stocks, too
Risk factor analysis shows that equity market sectors that act like “bond proxies” may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than bonds themselves.
What higher rates mean for income strategies
What do higher rates mean after almost a decade of near-zero rates? It's time to reconsider risk in fixed-income portfolios.
Can Trump follow Reagan's playbook?
Trump administration fiscal policy is expected to be similar to Ronald Reagan's measures, but economic conditions today are much different than in 1981.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
Watch the euro as Italy votes
We are watching the referendum in Italy this weekend for yet another existential crisis for the euro.
Negative interest rates explained
Today's unorthodox central bank policies have made negative interest rates more normal, with potential consequences for government bonds and the banking sector.
Proceeding toward Brexit: The risks for investors
With the United Kingdom beginning to move forward with Brexit, we see risks to the economy, the pound, and the markets.
Buyer beware: Defensive sectors may be overvalued
Seven years into this bull market, defensive sectors have leading performance, and may be signaling more attractive opportunities elsewhere.
Italy's bank troubles challenge EU
Troubled banks in Italy pose a new challenge to the EU, one that has been compounded by the U.K.'s vote in favor of Brexit.
The bright side of investor pessimism
A widely followed measure of investor sentiment is showing historically low levels of bullishness. This pessimism could be good news for equities.
Why Brexit would spell trouble for the United Kingdom
Several risks exist for U.K. stocks and European markets if what is known as Brexit wins approval from British voters.
Why the earnings recession isn’t all bad news
An earnings recession can be a sign of market weakness, but for investors it has much different implications than an economic recession.
Be flexible to maneuver in unsettled markets
Policy and economic uncertainty increase the importance of flexible portfolio strategies that can maneuver around risks.
Why value stocks could shine
Investors looking at equity allocations should consider the wide valuation dispersion between growth and value stocks in today’s market.
Weighing the risks in the market cycle
At this point of the market cycle — nearly seven years after the last bear market — positive and negative forces have struck a near balance.
Fed downshifts on pace of rate hikes
The Fed's “dot plot” in March, representing individual forecasts by 17 Fed policymakers, showed a reduction in the number of rate hikes for 2016.
Dividends rose in 2015 despite volatility
A majority of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have increased their dividend each year for several years running.
Navigating rates as the Fed steers a course
With the Fed embarked on a cycle of interest rate increases, investors face a challenge to navigate rates in their fixed-income portfolios.
Don’t underestimate this economy
Despite worrisome headlines about the economy, recent data show only a modest loss of momentum.
Constrained credit threatens growth
Stock market rallies often need to climb a wall of worry, and we see that wall getting higher.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.