Most recent Fixed Income Outlook and research
Sticky inflation and Treasury supply likely to push yields higher
Stay informed on fixed income markets in the fourth quarter. Get timely updates on currency, credit, and the yield curve.
Quarterly positioning
Browse our monthly Macro Report
Why Gaza war has not yet caused an oil price spike
The calamity of war in Gaza since early October has so far had a more muted impact on oil prices than might have been expected. We analyze the market and share our outlook.
Sticky inflation is likely if there is no recession
Trends from the labor market and continued wealth imbalance are setting the stage for sticky inflation. Read the October Macro Report.
Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) will face constraints
The Fed is pursuing QT while being careful to avoid market disruption. Compare scenarios for QT and markets in Putnam's Macro Report.
The debt ceiling is raised, but the debt problem persists
As inflation sticks around, it is important to think about how it is related to high government debt.
Contracting money supply poses risk to bonds
A contracting money supply paired with the Fed's quantitative tightening is adding bank sector stress on Treasury and MBS markets.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
