Weekly economic update for October 11, 2021


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The IHS Markit U.S. Composite PMI Output Index slipped to 55.0 in September from 55.4 in August.
  • Factory orders increased 1.2% in August, the Census Bureau found.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims fell by 38,000 to 326,000 in the week ended October 2, 2021, according to the Department of Labor.
  • The United States added 194,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% in September from 5.2% in August.


Profits
  • As of September 30, 2021, of the 16 S&P 500 Index companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 12 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell and remained in negative territory for the second consecutive month.


Europe
  • Eurostat reported that euro area industrial producer prices climbed 1.1% in August.
  • The IHS Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index fell to 56.2 in September from 59.0 in August.
  • Euro area retail sales rose 0.3% in August compared with July, Eurostat noted.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose.


Risks
  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • A shift from “just in time” to “just in case” inventory models could exacerbate supply chain concerns.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.